History of the Future (220-0-20)

Instructors

Ken Alder
847/467-4038
Harris Hall 307
Ken Alder is a historian of science and technology, as well as a novelist. He was born under the sign of Sputnik in Berkeley, California, and studied physics and solar energy before turning to history and fiction. His scholarly work is focused on the history of measurement—both of nature and of human beings—and the ways in which quantitative values reflect social values.

Meeting Info

Swift Hall 107: Tues, Thurs 2:00PM - 3:20PM

Overview of class

The world today is awash in predictions: economic forecasts and military scenarios, climate models and pandemic plans, political polls and betting pools, plus the ever-approaching AI utopia and/or hellscape. But how much of this is new? For millennia now, people have been debating what the future holds. They haven't always been right, of course, but even their mistakes tell us a great deal about the times they were made. Ironically, studying the future is an excellent way to study the past—and reconsider our present. In this course we will study 5,000 years of prognosticators, from Mesopotamian astrologers to today's climate scientists. Along the way we will read sci-fi novelists and religious millenarians, evolutionary theorists and Afro-futurists, eugenicists and high-tech visionaries. We will also play in-class scenario games and revisit Covid predictions to get a feel for how the future unfolded in lived time. This course may not teach you to predict the future more accurately, but it will help you understand visions of things to come. Come explore the alternative worlds of futures past.

Learning Objectives

The course teaches students to assess changing methods of predicting the future, from divination and probability theory to epidemiology and climate models. It is also an exercise in Big History, covering 5,000 years of time, and exploring the challenges (and joys!) of the historical method, including the status of evidence, the role of contingency, the choice of temporal scale, and the virtues of epistemic modesty. Students will learn how different cultures have managed the risks of technological futurity (from famine relief and inoculation to eugenics and artificial intelligence) and how those risks have unevenly borne across the globe.

Evaluation Method

Three inventive essays and short one-page weekly response papers

Class Notes

History Major Concentration(s): Americas, European, Global
History Minor Concentration(s): Europe, United States, Science and Technology, Environment

Class Attributes

Historical Studies Foundational Discipline
Global Perspectives on Power, Justice, and Equity

Enrollment Requirements

Enrollment Requirements: Registration is restricted to History Majors and Minors only until the end of pre-registration, after which time enrollment will be open to everyone who has taken the prerequisites (if any)

Associated Classes

DIS - Annenberg Hall G28: Fri 9:00AM - 9:50AM

DIS - Annenberg Hall G28: Fri 10:00AM - 10:50AM

DIS - Kresge Centennial Hall 2-335: Fri 10:00AM - 10:50AM

DIS - Harris Hall L06: Fri 11:00AM - 11:50AM

DIS - Harris Hall L04: Fri 11:00AM - 11:50AM

DIS - Harris Hall L06: Fri 12:00PM - 12:50PM